Read an interesting article on the potential of life existing elsewhere in the universe. The entire article is here, or you can just read on for a couple paragraph summary...
The jist of the article is not discussing the possibility of life elsewhere, instead the author is commenting on why life, if discovered on Mars specifically, is bad news for Earth. It's a pretty compelling, if not convincing, argument. I suppose one should start at the beginning: from all we can tell when it comes to intelligent life in the Universe we're it. Our SETI program and the likes have turned up nothing. Simple math, famously the Drake equation, would imply intelligent life has to exist out there. There are 100 billion stars in our own galaxy (a middling size affair) and 100 billion galaxies in the universe. It seems that every time we turn around scientists have discovered another star with planets in orbit, indicating solar systems are more of a norm than an exception in the universe. With all those hundreds of billions of stars, and in turn hundreds of billions of planets: where are they? Where are the aliens? Certainly life should be the common denominator in the galaxy and universe, the sky should be littered with radio signals if not interstellar travel. With all the conditions seemingly favoring intelligent life across the universe something must be stopping it from existing: a "Great Filter" in the author's term.
There are two places a filter such as this could exist. Either in front of us (using our current status as "just" before interstellar travel and good interstellar communication as a base) or behind us in terms of development.
Option 1) the filter is behind us. This could be any number of locations: just the rise of life (after all it took nearly a billion years before our planet got it right and it has only happened once on this planet: as opposed to say photosynthesizing which has independently developed multiple times), the development of multicellular organisms, the development of sexual reproduction (and thus a reliable source of variation beyond mutation), or any such event.
If this is the case the development of complex, and beyond that intelligent, life is extraordinarily rare and we stand atop the technological pyramid of a universe either devoid of life, or teeming with unintelligent life.
Option 2) the filter is ahead of us. The rise to intelligence is nearly inevitable(or at least common, we're the rule not the exception) on planets with the "right" conditions. However shortly after reaching the interstellar travel stage (or just prior to it) "something" happens to destroy them. The obvious culprit would be that with the technology to travel to the distant stars comes the power to destroy ones own species...and over time it is inevitable that it will happen. If you make enough planet splitting bombs, some one is going to let one off. Other culprits could be our particle accelerators or other science experiments forming a blackhole and tearing apart the planet (or some other catastrophic disaster). Catastrophic global warming from the technology required to advance. Any of these could do. But definitely something more than just a societal collapse (say the collapse of the West). Cultures have risen and fallen, each time picking up the pieces and advancing again. It would take more than that to stop all progress: mainly our ultimate demise as a species.
If we find life on Mars we essentially prove that life IS the common denominator in the universe, as it has happened here twice in our solar system. That's 2 for what...6 possible life-supporting planets (Mars, Venus, Earth, and let's just throw in 3 random moons from Saturn or Jupiter). If 1/3 of "good" planets have life...there's a metric shit ton of life out there. If we find a simple life form...well the "filter" could be behind us still, it could be the transition to multicellular life that's so rare. If it's a more complex...then things are more difficult to explain away. More of the likely "behind us" options are removed leaving it more likely that the filter is ahead of us.
If the Filter is ahead of us? Well, that's a gloomy picture. It means that millions of times species have reached where we are now...and then utterly destroyed themselves before being able to begin expanding across their galaxy or the universe. (The author goes into detail about how quickly a single species could colonize across a galaxy...well quickly in comparison to the life of stars or galaxies). That is not encouraging especially as we're getting closer and closer to developing weapons that really could destroy the entire world in a moment (as opposed to the current doomsday scenario of thousands of nukes being required to carpet the globe, to actually kill us all).
It's an interesting concept. But I do have a pretty substantial beef with it; which I'll continue in my next post...but this should be enough to get the gears in your heads turning, and serve as an apology for my gap in postings: I've been sick and just moved back home for a bit while setting up my next digging gig.

